Petersburg, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

045
FXAK67 PAJK 021841 AAA
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
941 AM AKST Mon Feb 2 2026

.UPDATE...Aviation update for 18z issuance. Little or no changes
to thinking of the forecast package.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 515 am 2 Feb...

SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- Multiple weak fronts look to move over the panhandle through
  early next week, bringing increases in wind and precipitation
  chances, with breaks in between.

- After this front moves past any given area, periods of clearing
  and fog potential increase.

- A possible atmospheric river could move into the southern half
  of the panhandle by mid next week. Flooding and an increase in
  winds are possible, with a hydrologic outlook issued in
  response. Accumulating snow near Haines and Skagway highways are
  also a concern.

SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Rain continues to spread north across the panhandle this morning
with most locations reporting rain except for a handful of places.
The rain is expected to persist this morning before starting to
diminish from south to north later this morning. This will allow
for a break from the rain before the next front that is expected
to move in this evening. The front this evening is expected to
bring more significant rainfall to the area with the heaviest
rainfall expected for the southern panhandle. Besides the rain,
winds are expected to increase as this front moves north and
crosses the panhandle. Current thinking is that most places across
the southern panhandle will see winds gust up to 55 mph late
tonight and into tomorrow morning. This front moves through the
area by Tuesday afternoon allowing for another break before the
next system moves in later in the week.

LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Late Week)
With the main areas of low pressure well west through late week
over the north central and northwestern Gulf of Alaska, a gale
force front extending east of the broad low will initially move up
from the south across the eastern Gulf of Alaska and the southern
Panhandle Tuesday, with another front moving in on Wednesday.
This will help focus periods of heavier rainfall across the
southern half of the Panhandle Tuesday into Wednesday with a
general area of 2 to 4 inches of rainfall expected. Antecedent
conditions look minimal for significant flooding with annual
return values less than 5 years, so impacts from heavy rainfall do
not look to be overly significant for midweek. We will see
periods of winds 35-50 mph at times across the southern Panhandle
Tuesday into Wednesday, but at this time not to High Wind Warning
criteria. We will continue to monitor.

AVIATION.../through 12z Tuesday/
Main aviation concerns through the TAF period will be periods of
LIFR/IFR CIGS & IFR Visbys through Monday morning for PAJN and
LLWS increasing for PAKT and PAKW Monday evening.

Mixed bag of aviation conditions ongoing across the panhandle
this morning as a decaying front pushes inland. Looking at obs
across the area, CIGS generally AoB 3500 across the N Panhandle
TAF sites improving to AoB 5000ft for the southern panhandle with
widespread visbys 3 to 6SM, except isolated IFR visbys down to
2SM near PAJN in mist/fog. Through the rest of Monday morning,
decaying departing front will push northward towards
Haines/Skagway/Yakutat, with gradual improvements to MVFR to low-
end VFR and break in precipitation in between systems through
Monday afternoon from S to N across the panhandle. Next frontal
system and accompanying precipitation pushes into the S Panhandle
by 06z Tuesday, spreading northward with LLWS values increasing
for PAKT and PAKW 35 to 45kts by 12z Tuesday.

MARINE...
Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): Moderate to fresh breezes
continue across the outer coast and Gulf waters this morning with
combined seas sitting around 9-11 ft according to the Gulf water
buoys. Winds are expected to increase this afternoon and evening as
a gale force front moves into the Gulf. Gales to strong gales are
expected for all of the outside waters late tonight into tomorrow as
the front moves northward. Seas are expected to stop trending down
from earlier in the day and instead start to build. Wave heights
with this front could 20-25 ft as the front moves through the area
tomorrow.

Inside (Inner Channels): Conditions across the Inner Channels this
morning are very much location dependent. Most observations continue
to show either light to gentle breezes, or fresh to strong breezes.
This conditions will continue today with winds eventually starting
to increase this afternoon and evening as a gale force front moves
north across the Gulf. Winds for most of the Inner Channels is
expected to increase to strong breezes or near gales with this front
moving through. Gales could be possible, especially for places like
Clarence Strait which could see increased winds moving up from
Hecate Strait through the Dixon Entrance. After the front moves
through the area Tuesday, winds are expected to remain elevated
although wind speeds should diminish behind the front. Seas are
expected to remain fairly small today but will start to increase
with the increasing wind speeds. Wave heights are expected to come
up to around 3-7 ft for most water ways with the exceptions of ocean
entrances that are favored by southerly swell directions such as
Chatham, Sumner and Clarence straits.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ036-641-642-644-651-652-661>664-671-672.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ021-022-031-033>035-053-643.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99

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